Sunday, November 30, 2008

A Journalist gets it!

I found the following quote, in this article, from the photographer who managed to get a shot of on of the Mumbai terrorists:

"I told some policemen the gunmen had moved towards the rear of the station but they refused to follow them. What is the point if having policemen with guns if they refuse to use them? I only wish I had a gun rather than a camera."


Policemen who will not stop an armed gunman from slaughtering unarmed citizens... It makes my stomach turn.

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Happy Thanksgiving

Just a few random thoughts.

Arrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!!!!

The Somali pirates have been thriving - capturing a Saudi oil tanker and a Russian cargo ship laden with military cargo amongst others. That takes balls by any measure. What is amazing is that they have been allowed to thrive. The reactionary nature of the nations patrolling the Indian Ocean have emboldened the Pirates who live in luxury in a Barbary state. Somalia has not been a truly sovereign nation for sometime. The meddling by foreign groups - including Clinton's abortion of an operation in the '90s - have created a poor, fractured country in a state of perpetual civil war. The international community, sadly, frowns on arming the crews for the defense of their ship. As an American I fins this fundamentally wrong. The pirates have no real fear of loss and this emboldens them. Only one way has been proven to stop piracy: sink their ships, hell their ports, and hang the captains. The US Navy was formed to battle the Barbary Pirates. The Marines Hymn enshrines the "...shores of Tripoli...". You must be more ruthless then them; history prove s this. Sink captured vessels to deny them ransom and cargo - though that gets expensive in a hurry. Shell/bomb safe havens - a perfect job for a BB - if we still used them. If you make piracy have a significant cost you will curtail it.

Obama's Appointments and Such...

I just have to laugh. The man worked his way up through the Chicago political machine. Patronage is an important component of that. If anyone really thought he would do things differently they are a diluted fool. Even the Huffington Post is crying about this. You are getting exactly what you voted for. Those of you on the left are only seeing the beginnings of what many on the right had predicted would be the shape of his administration. If you are unwillinhg to take a critical look at your canidate before an election; don't act surpised when he does thinks you don't expect or disagree with.

On a somewhat related note... something that I had noticed during the summer, but never mentioned (I wasn't in a writing mood much of the summer): Doesn't the Oboma 'Hope' graphic look a little like the common Che Guevara image? I think it does, and it is quite telling of his belief system.


Money...

Here is an interesting artical in the Finacial Times. Apparently the Germans get it. It is a real shame that politicas and class warfare have gotten in the way of solving problems.

Friday, November 21, 2008

The Auto Bail-out Plan Pt 3

Finally, the bail-out debate.


It has been said that: “ Nations fall when the population realizes it can vote it self money from the treasury.” This has been proven time and time again (Rome, the various Soviet states). It is being proven again with all of the social programs and pork that exist in the country, at every level (Social Security, California's perpetual budget woes). The first $700 billion dollars as created a clamor for companies, states, and cities to have the fed solve there own fiscal mis-management or just yelling 'gimmie' to anyone who'll listen. If the auto industry gets a bail out, when will the hand outs end? I am fundamentally opposed to a bail out as a solution for any situation. That being said, I do thing that things must happen to prevent a complete collapse of the American auto industry.


Will the auto makers go into bankruptcy? Will they survive? Who knows? What is fairly certain is that even if one fails the number of jobs that will be affected it almost inconceivable. The ripple of even one going down, will hurt suppliers, vendors, the towns that house plants, and so on down to the 7-11 that sells coffee and a paper to the workers in that plant.

From the AP article:

"The industry is so interdependent," Mulally said. "We're nearly 10 percent of the US GDP, and if one of the automobile manufacturers gets into serious trouble, it has just tremendous implications for the entire industry."


Will the country survive the loss of so many jobs? Yes. It will hurt for sure, but we'll weather that storm. It will almost certainly cause recession. The ailing auto industry as effected a recession in Michigan that has lasted for some time. As an aside: we know what won't help the economy if the worst happens. Just look!


Will the UAW? Possibly not, but that won't necessarily be a bad thing considering the state of unions in this country today. Even if the UAW survives; it will be severely weakened and hopefully will become a much more reasonable organization to deal with. Unions (the leadership, not necessarily the rank and file) have become a political entity and a bully with a focus on power and not a symbiotic relationship with the companies they work in. Just ask Colt. Unions do do a lot of good but it appears to most people looking in that that the worker is only a secondary concern.


As of Wednesday night the decision on what to be done has been delayed until December 2nd. "Until they show us the plan, we cannot show them the money," said Speaker Nancy Pelosi, C-Calif. I think there are a few reasons for the delay. Ostensibly, the (Democratic) leadership in Congress do not believe they have bill that will pass both houses with adequate Republican support or would be acceptable to President Bush. I think there is a certain amount of grand standing – making the auto executives grovel for a couple more weeks. I know that the leadership would love to delay a vote until after the inauguration so that Obama can have a big feather in his cap early in his first term. I'm pretty sure that many in Congress have no idea what to do. Certainly, many (true) conservatives oppose the plan on principle, and that more than a few other congress-critters are reading the tea leaves before making a last minute decision. I am also quite certain that the proposal from Wagner and the other included a major reduction in their retirement and health care liabilities.


The following quote from the AP article is one of the things that frightens me the most:

'Automakers ran into more resistance from House lawmakers, who chastised the executives for fighting tougher fuel-efficiency standards in the past and questioned their use of private jets while at the same time seeking government handouts.

"My fear is that you're going to take this money and continue the same stupid decisions you've made for 25 years," said Rep. Michael Capuano, D-Mass. '


It is no secret that Pelosi and many on the left have been pushing for higher efficiency standards and other environmentalist regulations for years; some bordering on the absurd. This, despite the lack of consumer wholesale interest or the technological feasibility. As I mentioned before, they are, in part, a cause of the current mess. I, also, distinctly remember a few of these monkeys telling us that high gas prices are a good thing. The mentality of these people places an environmental agenda above the vitality of any American industry. What is really shameful is the disregard of the big three's improvements in this area. GM will have the Volt in 2010, has had cylinder deactivation since the '07 MY, and hybrids before that. Ford and Chrysler have made similar improvements to economy and emissions, but this progress has been over looked in favor of an agenda that is pushed with out regard for American industry or the needs and wants of the consumer.


I feel it incumbent of me to point out: that nearly no congressman or senator has any experience running a business - especially one as large and complex as GM and Ford et el. They have not shown a willingness to contain government spending. The federal government is a case study in mismanagement and always will be. These are the people who gave the Secretary of the Treasury the sole authority to dispense the $700 billion they alloted the to sure up the credit market, without control or oversight, and are now bitching that what money was spent didn't go were they thought it would or should go. I think that Paulson's little 'bait and switch' caused a swing to the other extreme and may lead any bill to have a lot of stings and earmarks attached to it as a result.


It is important to note that Obama has said very little on the issue since he was elected. He and his team may view it as a hot potato and not be willing to put their mark on it in fear of failure.



I do not think that direct government intervention will help. Especially considering the current leadership of Congress. Forcing the trade issue, reducing regulation, lowering taxes, and removing any law that forces the hiring of only union workers will help in the long run. The only way that believe the fed can offer immediate and substitutive assistance is by removing the burden caused by retirees. If congress would take over the pensions and health care of retired workers and allow the auto makers to renegotiate with the unions it would almost immediately put them into, or close to, the black and allow them be more competitive.


I do not like this option either since it make a large number of people a ward of the state and advances socialism a little further, but I see it as the best of a whole mess of bad options.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

The Auto Bail-out Plan Pt 2

In my previous post I listed some of the American auto industries issues. It may look like focused too much on certain things, but keep in mind my prose style. I went into greater detail about some of the more subtle problems that I have observed and was a little lite on some of the more frequently discussed issues (unions, government regulation, etc.)

With all of the mentioned baggage; the big three were still viable and operating with an eye on a more prosperous future. It has been a long road improving their products and corporate cultures to change with the times. Unfortunately the lack loyalty and perception that American cars are over priced junk will take a generation to erase. Toyota and other Asian did not build its reputation overnight and have done a superior job of improving their products over the last twenty years. I also can not overstate the unfair trade practices that have damaged the domestic makers ability to compete in their own markets. Similarly, the $1500-$3000 added to the cost of every car would put any company at a decided disadvantage.

The last two straws should be pretty obvious to anyone, paying attention, to the last year and a half. First the very sudden and very large increase in the price of oil and finished petroleum products (fuel) Their were many factors that caused this sudden shock to the market. I'll simply list them, without too much detail, since this is not the scope of this entry: Weakness in the US dollar limiting our buying power, speculation, production disruption (hurricanes, etc.), instability in the middle east, and a increasing demand that pushed our domestic refining capacity to the limit. As a side note: we haven't built any new refiners in this country for over 20 years.

This sudden increase put a major dent in the domestic's one good and profitable seller: full-sized trucks. Truck buyers are amongst the most loyal customers and only recently have the Japanese come out with a product the can directly compete with a F-series, Silverado, or Ram. The big three have been slow in shifting production to meet the demand for more fuel efficient vehicles. To be fair, they are fairly conservative and were probably waiting to see just how long this price increase would last. Additionally, large companies do not shift gears quickly, especially if they have onerous union obligations. The week dollar and higher transport costs did help the makers buy making it more expensive to import products from over seas – though the climate didn't last long enough to offer lasting aid.

The credit fiasco is what really put Detroit in a bind. All of a sudden people were not buying car at all and the entire new car market tanked over 30%. This was especially bad for Ford, GM, and Chrysler due to all over the overhead and legacy costs they have. They have to sell a much larger number of cars in order meet the obligations. They had been selling enough to barely meet these costs and pay for current costs; treading water for nearly a decade while loosing market share to outside competition.

Saturday, November 15, 2008

The Auto Bail-out Plan Pt 1

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (C-San Francisco) outlined the Democrat's plan to bail out the ailing auto industry with $25 billion dollars. I’ve heard the number two million to describe the number of jobs that will be effected if all thee of the big three fail. That number tempers my fundamental dislike of government bailouts.

Talk of a bail out for Detroit has been circling the press and Washington for some time, so I figured I’d weigh in… not that my opinion will change anything. I was just going to write my opinion of the current proposal, but I realized that It may be important to cover why we are here in the first place.

Let me first outline the reasons why the US auto companies were hurting in the first place. I’ve worked in the auto industry for over eight years. In those eight years I have driven, worked on, or otherwise worked with an incredible number of cars. I’ve dealt directly with GM and to a much lesser extent several other companies and every kind of dealer you can think of. I make these observations from direct experience. The vast majority of my experience is with Chevrolet and by extension GM; most of my examples will be GM’s issues as a result.

For starters the big three produced a lot of junk from the mid-70s through the mid-90s when they began to improve their products to compete with foreign competition. Foreign manufactures produced more fuel efficient cars with decent 4-bangers that ran seemingly forever. Honda and Toyota for cylinders ran smooth and had decent power for there size. American makers only introduced automatic transmissions with more than four speeds in just the last couple of years while many of the foreign makes have had five and six speeds for a number of years now. They lacked quality control for a number of years while German makers maintained and the Japanese greatly improved. At the very least the perceived quality of American cars was seen as inferior. The lack of quality is often gleamed from the low-rent, cheap interiors in most cars, even up market Cadillacs and Lincolns. Big pieces of cheap, hard, squeaky plastic; really cheap leather; crappy radios; and really poor fit will not help to sell cars.

Bad product decisions and inability to fix reoccurring problems is a major problem. This is an issue with any large, bureaucratic corporation. The GM created the Cimmoron and God killed a 100 baby seals for that abortion of a car. The 4-6-8s and gas-motors-made-diesels of the eighties are examples of good ideas poorly implemented and severely damaged public perception of these technologies. Steering shafts in GM products that had a “slip-stick” condition are a very recent example of GM’s inability, or un-willingness, to fix a major customer complaint. The introduction of a new intermediate steering shaft 9 years after the problem cropped up is a tacit admission that the twenty-some TSBs they produced to solve the problem didn’t and that they were just being cheap at the expense of customer satisfaction. I could spend days listing examples, but I have better things to do with my time. The upshot is: Bean counters run these companies, and it shows. They also have an amazing ability to kill off products once they’ve gotten them right or start to attract customers – see Dodge Neon or the ‘94-’96 Impala SS

The above two issues, coupled with increased competition and the influx cheap cars from Korea means that buyer are less brand loyal than they ever were. Ford and GM were slow to realize that. They were also slow to adapt to new markets such as the sport tuner crowd that introduced younger buyers to Nissan, Honda and Toyota the same way the Mustang and Nova did for them in the 60s. They are today’s buyers and they don’t buy American. The increasing popularity of rear drive luxury and sport sedans from Europe also caught them off guard as Detroit continued producing front drive cars with willowy suspensions for people who’s next big purchase will be casket (think a DeVille or Town Car vs. a BMW 7-series).

General inefficiency doesn’t help. Any large business is going to gave its problems, but for the auto-industry it is systemic and long reaching. As an example Chrysler has two oil filter that fit 90% of Chrysler engines in 90% of applications - I can think of over 10 oil filters for GMs that fit cars made in the last few years.

Bad business decisions haven’t helped. I will say that no one can see the future and it is very easy to play Monday morning quarter back with any move, but I distinctly remember reading in several sources (WSJ, the Economist, et al.) expressing their doubts in both situations. I write, specifically of the Chrysler-Daimler “merger” and Jack Nasser burning through Ford’s capital to buy as many luxury brands as possible. It is important to note that both Ford and Chrysler gleamed tech., expertise, and other benefits from these moves. Jaguar and Aston Martin were saved by Ford, by fixing its glaring quality problems, and Ford gained a great deal by sharing platforms with Mazda and Volvo. Chrysler’s merger with Daimler made the 300/Charger/Challenger cars what they are today. The ultimate result of the failure of Daimler-Chrysler and Fords spending spree has left them in much weaker finical shape than they would other wise been in. GM has been some what more conservative, but has made a few brand misjudgments and some other internal problems that have weakened its ability of efficiently function. The GMAC sale, however, to Cerberus Capitol Management (which also owns Chrysler Corp.) just before the credit crunch looks like pure genius (and great luck?); probably saving GM from burning through its capitol sooner.

C.A.F.E. standards and other regulations that are overly stringent, that prevent innovation, and limit the ability of current technology to mature in a natural way. These standards are one of the reason why I can't buy a 3-series with a diesel and why VW and Mercedes stopped importing there high efficiency diesels. I'm all for buying American, but there is something to be said for a car that gets 40-50 mpg without the over complexity of a hybrid.

Finally and possibly the biggest thing that hurts them are the unions. The UAW has a strangle hold on the American auto industry and has been squeezing the life out of it for some time. The big three’s pension, heath care, and fixed pay-roll costs have been analyzed at length for years and going in to it here would be redundant.

This is not a complete listing or analysis of Detroit’s faults, but it is just to illustrate some of the depth and complexity of the problems facing them. Many of the faults have been corrected as of late, but is may be a case of to little to late and the perception issues will take a generation to erase. I do understand the reasons why they stayed with the 4-pd autos, for example, and some of the other more conservative engineering decisions – they work and if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Unfortunately they became content with "good enough" and were diluted enough to think that brand loyalty would make consumers continue to buy their products in the face of pressure from Asian and European makers.



The big three were hit (somewhat) un-expectedly by the very sudden rise in gas prices. This put a major damper on the sales of trucks and SUV which have been, at least in Ford and GM’s case, the most profitable segments. This buy it self is not the end of the world since they had been moving to improve small and mid-sized cars and had brought out many new and much improved models and could actually compete with foreign offerings. Then Fanny Mae/Freddy Mac collapsed bringing Wall Street, the credit market and the economy to a grinding halt and as a result auto sales dropped between 30-40% virtually over night. No business can scale production that rapidly, but for GM, Ford and Chrysler the problem is worse because they must sell a minimum number of cars to meet union and pension obligations. They also have massive fixed cost that haven’t gone away and have, in fact, increased.


Next: Part II: the Bail-Out


Update:

I forgot to mention foreign protectionism. Europe isn't an issue since Ford and GM manufacture cars in Europe for Europe and make a decent profit as a result - the issue is Asia. Japan has had protectionist policies for decades that effectively lock every non-Japanese maker out of the market while Japan is able to sell as many cars in the US as they can make. I' all for free trade, but free trade is a two way street and the current arrangement is just wrong. The policy makers in this country need to grow a spine and force this issue. Opening markets to US goods is AN ADMINISTRATION'S DAMN JOB! GM does make a great deal of money in China, however the Chinese government gets a massive chunk of the profits from that. To be perfectly frank, the only reason the Chinese allowed GM to set up an operation the size they have, with the control they have, is to gleam as much mass production knowledge, manufacturing information, and tech as they can get.

Friday, November 14, 2008

I was thing about changing the title; Latin may be a little pretentious. Besides, it implies that I have anything really important to say Or that right better than my broken prose.

Monday, November 10, 2008

A few observations on the new government, etc....

Rule? I wasn't aware the PotUS had the same powers as the President of Venezuela.








Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wrote a letter congratulating Obama on his victory. I believe he is the first president to receive such a letter. It is good to know that the president of Iran likes him.

Office of the President-Elect? I wasn't aware that such a position officially existed as an office. It smacks of arrogance. He has yet to be sworn in yet and already he is trying to effect policy changes. At least he has finally stated his goals on Change.gov; unfortunately much of what he wants to do has been rejected at the ballot box, is borderline unconstitutional, or just plain socialism.


"Obama to use executive orders for immediate impact" (see the video above)

I would suspect this includes, based on this article and his various speeches, a moratorium or sever limitations on domestic oil production and exploration (way to help our energy independence, gas prices and the economy).

He also pushes a "big-bang" approach to helping the economy. Increasing the size of government will do nothing to help the economy in the long run and will accomplish nothing except bloating the already strained federal budget, limit economic freedom, and have negative effect on taxes. (See the Cater, LBJ, and FDR administrations for proof).

"The alliance between Britain and the U.S. -- and more broadly between Europe and the U.S. -- can and must provide leadership, not in order to make the rules ourselves, but to lead the global effort to build a stronger and more just international order," an excerpt from the speech says.

"My message is that we must be: internationalist not protectionist; interventionist not neutral; progressive not reactive; and forward looking not frozen by events. We can seize the moment and in doing so build a truly global society."



The election of Obama and the economic troubles have brought renewed vigor to the "one world" types (if that that term doesn't make me look like a paranoid wack-o I don't know what will). I can't remember the last time that I read an article that was so overt. Really, the concept isn't all that bad until you realize that its biggest proponents are socialists and power mongers. Besides, multiple governments can be argued as a good thing; the interests of different countries act as a check on the ambitions of others. If the Un is an example; I truly fear what that world government would look like. Here is another article from Bloomberg that sound much more reasonable; putting forth ideas such as lowering taxes that I can agree with. In fact I read an article last week that described how European efforts, lowering takes and instituting a flat tax, had helped the economy and lowered unemployment. He says this as the nanny stae of Briton moves closer to the world of 1984.

Louis Farrakhan warned that Obama's victory might spark racial tensions. One: I have a better view of American than you and I doubt that much of anything will happen just because he is black. A depression, or other policy decisions are another matter entirely. Second: Farrakhan, the civil rights leaders (as they are today), persons like Rev. Wright, and many democrats have sewed the seeds of racial and economic division for years for their own political and power gains. any violence for those reasons can be blamed on them. Third, this is the man who thinks the Bush administration had the levees in st="on"New Orleans blown up, and claims to have spoken to aliens on a mountain top in Mexico - why does anyone listen to this man any more?

Biden was booded at an Eagles game. For the life of me I'm not quite sure why. Really Philly sports fans aren't as bad as the media makes them out to be.

Gorbachev calls on Obama to carry out 'perestroika' in the U.S.

While his policies did, in part, help to bring down the command economy and by extension the Soviet system; it also caused economic turmoil and created the mess that Russia is today. This is not a person (nor should any Communist, really) that should be talking about economic policy. Since he did say it, I wonder if he was using it as a generic term for economic reform, or if he is diluted enough to think that what he enacted worked well enough to be copied in to a COMPLEATLY DIFFERENT SYSTEM.


Finally the US automakers are in serious trouble due to mis-management, the production of relive junk from the mid 70s through the late 90s, government regulation and pay out of union benefits and wages. For the first time the Democrats want to "help" the auto industry in a substantive way in the form of a massive bailout that I really don't support on principle. They must have come to the realization that the wholesale collapse of such a large industry (and the US has few of those anymore) would have a ripple effect through the whole economy. That or they realized that if and when they go under it will most likely be in the next 4-8 yeas and large mass of unemployed union peopsheeple may not vote democrat in the next round of elections.


Just a few ramblings as I sit here and contemplate my future unemployment.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Reagan

I have several presidential speeches from Regan, Kennedy, Nixon, and others in my media library. They come around fro m time to time when I have the player running in random. So, I'm sitting here, at 10:20 in the evening, listing to Ronald Regan's acceptance speech - damn is it powerful and relevant - even today. When did the GOP begin to veer from the principles laid out in this speech? The Neo-Cons that took over the party with G.W. Bush; have steered the party away from the ideals that brought them victory in 1980 and gave them Congress in 1994.

I fear that if Obama wins that in 2012 this oratory can be given nearly verbatim (referencing Carter just wont work) as I see a return to the 1970s. I'm happy I missed that time and having learned the histories and the causes of this time. It frightens me that so many people have, apparently, failed all of the US history classes given in High School. We know the causes of the Depresson. We know what works and what doesn't.

If Obama wins the speech Regan gave July 7th, 1980 can be read my the Republican canidate (Palin) in 2012 and be given a strong foundation on which to build victory.



Here is text of the speech that I shamelessly copied from here:

Mr. Chairman, Mr. Vice President to be, this convention, my fellow citizens of this great nation:

With a deep awareness of the responsibility conferred by your trust, I accept your nomination for the presidency of the United States. I do so with deep gratitude, and I think also I might interject on behalf of all of us, our thanks to Detroit and the people of Michigan and to this city for the warm hospitality they have shown. And I thank you for your wholehearted response to my recommendation in regard to George Bush as a candidate for vice president.

I am very proud of our party tonight. This convention has shown to all America a party united, with positive programs for solving the nation's problems; a party ready to build a new consensus with all those across the land who share a community of values embodied in these words: family, work, neighborhood, peace and freedom.

I know we have had a quarrel or two, but only as to the method of attaining a goal. There was no argument about the goal. As president, I will establish a liaison with the 50 governors to encourage them to eliminate, where it exists, discrimination against women. I will monitor federal laws to insure their implementation and to add statutes if they are needed.

More than anything else, I want my candidacy to unify our country; to renew the American spirit and sense of purpose. I want to carry our message to every American, regardless of party affiliation, who is a member of this community of shared values.

Never before in our history have Americans been called upon to face three grave threats to our very existence, any one of which could destroy us. We face a disintegrating economy, a weakened defense and an energy policy based on the sharing of scarcity.

The major issue of this campaign is the direct political, personal and moral responsibility of Democratic Party leadership --i n the White House and in Congress -- for this unprecedented calamity which has befallen us. They tell us they have done the most that humanly could be done. They say that the United States has had its day in the sun; that our nation has passed its zenith. They expect you to tell your children that the American people no longer have the will to cope with their problems; that the future will be one of sacrifice and few opportunities.

My fellow citizens, I utterly reject that view. The American people, the most generous on earth, who created the highest standard of living, are not going to accept the notion that we can only make a better world for others by moving backwards ourselves. Those who believe we can have no business leading the nation.

I will not stand by and watch this great country destroy itself under mediocre leadership that drifts from one crisis to the next, eroding our national will and purpose. We have come together here because the American people deserve better from those to whom they entrust our nation's highest offices, and we stand united in our resolve to do something about it.

We need rebirth of the American tradition of leadership at every level of government and in private life as well. The United States of America is unique in world history because it has a genius for leaders -- many leaders -- on many levels. But, back in 1976, Mr. Carter said, "Trust me." And a lot of people did. Now, many of those people are out of work. Many have seen their savings eaten away by inflation. Many others on fixed incomes, especially the elderly, have watched helplessly as the cruel tax of inflation wasted away their purchasing power. And, today, a great many who trusted Mr. Carter wonder if we can survive the Carter policies of national defense.

"Trust me" government asks that we concentrate our hopes and dreams on one man; that we trust him to do what's best for us. My view of government places trust not in one person or one party, but in those values that transcend persons and parties. The trust is where it belongs--in the people. The responsibility to live up to that trust is where it belongs, in their elected leaders. That kind of relationship, between the people and their elected leaders, is a special kind of compact.

Three hundred and sixty years ago, in 1620, a group of families dared to cross a mighty ocean to build a future for themselves in a new world. When they arrived at Plymouth, Massachusetts, they formed what they called a "compact"; an agreement among themselves to build a community and abide by its laws.

The single act--the voluntary binding together of free people to live under the law--set the pattern for what was to come.

A century and a half later, the descendants of those people pledged their lives, their fortunes and their sacred honor to found this nation. Some forfeited their fortunes and their lives; none sacrificed honor.

Four score and seven years later, Abraham Lincoln called upon the people of all America to renew their dedication and their commitment to a government of, for and by the people.

Isn't it once again time to renew our compact of freedom; to pledge to each other all that is best in our lives; all that gives meaning to them--for the sake of this, our beloved and blessed land?

Together, let us make this a new beginning. Let us make a commitment to care for the needy; to teach our children the values and the virtues handed down to us by our families; to have the courage to defend those values and the willingness to sacrifice for them.

Let us pledge to restore, in our time, the American spirit of voluntary service, of cooperation, of private and community initiative; a spirit that flows like a deep and mighty river through the history of our nation.

As your nominee, I pledge to restore to the federal government the capacity to do the people's work without dominating their lives. I pledge to you a government that will not only work well, but wisely; its ability to act tempered by prudence and its willingness to do good balanced by the knowledge that government is never more dangerous than when our desire to have it help us blinds us to its great power to harm us.

The first Republican president once said, "While the people retain their virtue and their vigilance, no administration by any extreme of wickedness or folly can seriously injure the government in the short space of four years."

If Mr. Lincoln could see what's happened in these last three-and-a-half years, he might hedge a little on that statement. But, with the virtues that our legacy as a free people and with the vigilance that sustains liberty, we still have time to use our renewed compact to overcome the injuries that have been done to America these past three-and-a-half years.

First, we must overcome something the present administration has cooked up: a new and altogether indigestible economic stew, one part inflation, one part high unemployment, one part recession, one part runaway taxes, one party deficit spending and seasoned by an energy crisis. It's an economic stew that has turned the national stomach.

Ours are not problems of abstract economic theory. Those are problems of flesh and blood; problems that cause pain and destroy the moral fiber of real people who should not suffer the further indignity of being told by the government that it is all somehow their fault. We do not have inflation because -- as Mr. Carter says -- we have lived too well.

The head of a government which has utterly refused to live within its means and which has, in the last few days, told us that this year's deficit will be $60 billion, dares to point the finger of blame at business and labor, both of which have been engaged in a losing struggle just trying to stay even.

High taxes, we are told, are somehow good for us, as if, when government spends our money it isn't inflationary, but when we spend it, it is.

Those who preside over the worst energy shortage in our history tell us to use less, so that we will run out of oil, gasoline, and natural gas a little more slowly. Conservation is desirable, of course, for we must not waste energy. But conservation is not the sole answer to our energy needs.

America must get to work producing more energy. The Republican program for solving economic problems is based on growth and productivity.

Large amounts of oil and natural gas lay beneath our land and off our shores, untouched because the present administration seems to believe the American people would rather see more regulation, taxes and controls than more energy.

Coal offers great potential. So does nuclear energy produced under rigorous safety standards. It could supply electricity for thousands of industries and millions of jobs and homes. It must not be thwarted by a tiny minority opposed to economic growth which often finds friendly ears in regulatory agencies for its obstructionist campaigns.

Make no mistake. We will not permit the safety of our people or our environment heritage to be jeopardized, but we are going to reaffirm that the economic prosperity of our people is a fundamental part of our environment.

Our problems are both acute and chronic, yet all we hear from those in positions of leadership are the same tired proposals for more government tinkering, more meddling and more control -- all of which led us to this state in the first place.

Can anyone look at the record of this administration and say, "Well done?" Can anyone compare the state of our economy when the Carter Administration took office with where we are today and say, "Keep up the good work?" Can anyone look at our reduced standing in the world today and say, "Let's have four more years of this?"

I believe the American people are going to answer these questions the first week of November and their answer will be, "No--we've had enough." And, then it will be up to us -- beginning next January 20th -- to offer an administration and congressional leadership of competence and more than a little courage.

We must have the clarity of vision to see the difference between what is essential and what is merely desirable, and then the courage to bring our government back under control and make it acceptable to the people.

It is essential that we maintain both the forward momentum of economic growth and the strength of the safety net beneath those in society who need help. We also believe it is essential that the integrity of all aspects of Social Security are preserved.

Beyond these essentials, I believe it is clear our federal government is overgrown and overweight. Indeed, it is time for our government to go on a diet. Therefore, my first act as chief executive will be to impose an immediate and thorough freeze on federal hiring. Then, we are going to enlist the very best minds from business, labor and whatever quarter to conduct a detailed review of every department, bureau and agency that lives by federal appropriations. We are also going to enlist the help and ideas of many dedicated and hard working government employees at all levels who want a more efficient government as much as the rest of us do. I know that many are demoralized by the confusion and waste they confront in their work as a result of failed and failing policies.

Our instructions to the groups we enlist will be simple and direct. We will remind them that government programs exist at the sufferance of the American taxpayer and are paid for with money earned by working men and women. Any program that represents a waste of their money -- a theft from their pocketbooks--must have that waste eliminated or the program must go -- by executive order where possible; by congressional action where necessary. Everything that can be run more effectively by state and local government we shall turn over to state and local government, along with the funding sources to pay for it. We are going to put an end to the money merry-go-round where our money becomes Washington's money, to be spent by the states and cities exactly the way the federal bureaucrats tell them to.

I will not accept the excuse that the federal government has grown so big and powerful that it is beyond the control of any president, any administration or Congress. We are going to put an end to the notion that the American taxpayer exists to fund the federal government. The federal government exists to serve the American people. On January 20th, we are going to re-establish that truth.

Also on that date we are going to initiate action to get substantial relief for our taxpaying citizens and action to put people back to work. None of this will be based on any new form of monetary tinkering or fiscal sleight-of-hand. We will simply apply to government the common sense we all use in our daily lives.

Work and family are at the center of our lives; the foundation of our dignity as a free people. When we deprive people of what they have earned, or take away their jobs, we destroy their dignity and undermine their families. We cannot support our families unless there are jobs; and we cannot have jobs unless people have both money to invest and the faith to invest it.

There are concepts that stem from an economic system that for more than 200 years has helped us master a continent, create a previously undreamed of prosperity for our people and has fed millions of others around the globe. That system will continue to serve us in the future if our government will stop ignoring the basic values on which it was built and stop betraying the trust and good will of the American workers who keep it going.

The American people are carrying the heaviest peacetime tax burden in our nation's history -- and it will grow even heavier, under present law, next January. We are taxing ourselves into economic exhaustion and stagnation, crushing our ability and incentive to save, invest and produce.

This must stop. We must halt this fiscal self-destruction and restore sanity to our economic system.

I have long advocated a 30 percent reduction in income tax rates over a period of three years. This phased tax reduction would begin with a 10 percent "down payment" tax cut in 1981, which the Republicans and Congress and I have already proposed.

A phased reduction of tax rates would go a long way toward easing the heavy burden on the American people. But, we should not stop here.

Within the context of economic conditions and appropriate budget priorities during each fiscal year of my presidency, I would strive to go further. This would include improvement in business depreciation taxes so we can stimulate investment in order to get plants and equipment replaced, put more Americans back to work and put our nation back on the road to being competitive in world commerce. We will also work to reduce the cost of government as a percentage of our gross national product.

The first task of national leadership is to set honest and realistic priorities in our policies and our budget and I pledge that my administration will do that.

When I talk of tax cuts, I am reminded that every major tax cut in this century has strengthened the economy, generated renewed productivity and ended up yielding new revenues for the government by creating new investment, new jobs and more commerce among our people.

The present administration has been forced by us Republicans to play follow-the-leader with regard to a tax cut. But, in this election year we must take with the proverbial "grain of salt" any tax cut proposed by those who have given us the greatest tax increase in our history. When those in leadership give us tax increases and tell us we must also do with less, have they thought about those who have always had less -- especially the minorities? This is like telling them that just as they step on the first rung of the ladder of opportunity, the ladder is being pulled out from under them. That may be the Democratic leadership's message to the minorities, but it won't be ours. Our message will be: we have to move ahead, but we're not going to leave anyone behind. Thanks to the economic policies of the Democratic Party, millions of Americans find themselves out of work. Millions more have never even had a fair chance to learn new skills, hold a decent job, or secure for themselves and their families a share in the prosperity of this nation.

It is time to put America back to work; to make our cities and towns resound with the confident voices of men and women of all races, nationalities and faiths bringing home to their families a decent paycheck they can cash for honest money.

For those without skills, we'll find a way to help them get skills.

For those without job opportunities, we'll stimulate new opportunities, particularly in the inner cities where they live.

For those who have abandoned hope, we'll restore hope and we'll welcome them into a great national crusade to make America great again!

When we move from domestic affairs and cast our eyes abroad, we see an equally sorry chapter on the record of the present administration.

- As Soviet combat brigade trains in Cuba, just 90 miles from our shores.

- A Soviet army of invasion occupies Afghanistan, further threatening our vital interests in the Middle East.

- America's defense strength is at its lowest ebb in a generation, while the Soviet Union is vastly outspending us in both strategic and conventional arms.

- Our European allies, looking nervously at the growing menace from the East, turn to us for leadership and fail to find it.

- And, incredibly more than 50 of our fellow Americans have been held captive for over eight months by a dictatorial foreign power that holds us up to ridicule before the world.

Adversaries large and small test our will and seek to confound our resolve, but we are given weakness when we need strength; vacillation when the times demand firmness.

The Carter Administration lives in the world of make-believe. Every day, drawing up a response to that day's problems, troubles, regardless of what happened yesterday and what will happen tomorrow.

The rest of us, however, live in the real world. It is here that disasters are overtaking our nation without any real response from Washington.

This is make-believe, self-deceit and -- above all -- transparent hypocrisy.

For example, Mr. Carter says he supports the volunteer army, but he lets military pay and benefits slip so low that many of our enlisted personnel are actually eligible for food stamps. Re-enlistment rates drop and, just recently, after he fought all week against a proposal to increase the pay of our men and women in uniform, he helicoptered to our carrier, the U.S.S. Nimitz, which was returning from long months of duty. He told the crew that he advocated better pay for them and their comrades! Where does he really stand, now that he's back on shore?

I'll tell you where I stand. I do not favor a peacetime draft or registration, but I do favor pay and benefit levels that will attract and keep highly motivated men and women in our volunteer forces and an active reserve trained and ready for an instant call in case of an emergency.

There may be a sailor at the helm of the ship of state, but the ship has no rudder. Critical decisions are made at times almost in comic fashion, but who can laugh? Who was not embarrassed when the administration handed a major propaganda victory in the United Nations to the enemies of Israel, our staunch Middle East ally for three decades, and them claim that the American vote was a "mistake," the result of a "failure of communication" between the president, his secretary of state, and his U.N. ambassador?

Who does not feel a growing sense of unease as our allies, facing repeated instances of an amateurish and confused administration, reluctantly conclude that America is unwilling or unable to fulfill its obligations as the leader of the free world?

Who does not feel rising alarm when the question in any discussion of foreign policy is no longer, "Should we do something?", but "Do we have the capacity to do anything?"

The administration which has brought us to this state is seeking your endorsement for four more years of weakness, indecision, mediocrity and incompetence. No American should vote until he or she has asked, is the United States stronger and more respected now than it was three-and-a-half years ago? Is the world today a safer place in which to live?

It is the responsibility of the president of the United States, in working for peace, to insure that the safety of our people cannot successfully be threatened by a hostile foreign power. As president, fulfilling that responsibility will be my number one priority.

We are not a warlike people. Quite the opposite. We always seek to live in peace. We resort to force infrequently and with great reluctance--and only after we have determined that it is absolutely necessary. We are awed--and rightly so--by the forces of destruction at loose in the world in this nuclear era. But neither can we be naive or foolish. Four times in my lifetime America has gone to war, bleeding the lives of its young men into the sands of beachheads, the fields of Europe and the jungles and rice paddies of Asia. We know only too well that war comes not when the forces of freedom are strong, but when they are weak. It is then that tyrants are tempted.

We simply cannot learn these lessons the hard way again without risking our destruction.

Of all the objectives we seek, first and foremost is the establishment of lasting world peace. We must always stand ready to negotiate in good faith, ready to pursue any reasonable avenue that holds forth the promise of lessening tensions and furthering the prospects of peace. But let our friends and those who may wish us ill take note: the United States has an obligation to its citizens and to the people of the world never to let those who would destroy freedom dictate the future course of human life on this planet. I would regard my election as proof that we have renewed our resolve to preserve world peace and freedom. This nation will once again be strong enough to do that.

This evening marks the last step--save one--of a campaign that has taken Nancy and me from one end of this great land to the other, over many months and thousands of miles. There are those who question the way we choose a president; who say that our process imposes difficult and exhausting burdens on those who seek the office. I have not found it so.

It is impossible to capture in words the splendor of this vast continent which God has granted as our portion of this creation. There are no words to express the extraordinary strength and character of this breed of people we call Americans.

Everywhere we have met thousands of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans from all economic conditions and walks of life bound together in that community of shared values of family, work, neighborhood, peace and freedom. They are concerned, yes, but they are not frightened. They are disturbed, but not dismayed. They are the kind of men and women Tom Paine had in mind when he wrote--during the darkest days of the American Revolution--"We have it in our power to begin the world over again."

Nearly 150 years after Tom Paine wrote those words, an American president told the generation of the Great Depression that it had a "rendezvous with destiny." I believe that this generation of Americans today has a rendezvous with destiny.

Tonight, let us dedicate ourselves to renewing the American compact. I ask you not simply to "Trust me," but to trust your values--our values--and to hold me responsible for living up to them. I ask you to trust that American spirit which knows no ethnic, religious, social, political, regional, or economic boundaries; the spirit that burned with zeal in the hearts of millions of immigrants from every corner of the Earth who came here in search of freedom.

Some say that spirit no longer exists. But I have seen it -- I have felt it -- all across the land; in the big cities, the small towns and in rural America. The American spirit is still there, ready to blaze into life if you and I are willing to do what has to be done; the practical, down-to-earth things that will stimulate our economy, increase productivity and put America back to work. The time is now to resolve that the basis of a firm and principled foreign policy is one that takes the world as it is and seeks to change it by leadership and example; not by harangue, harassment or wishful thinking.

The time is now to say that while we shall seek new friendships and expand and improve others, we shall not do so by breaking our word or casting aside old friends and allies.

And, the time is now to redeem promises once made to the American people by another candidate, in another time and another place. He said, "For three long years I have been going up and down this country preaching that government--federal, state, and local--costs too much. I shall not stop that preaching. As an immediate program of action, we must abolish useless offices. We must eliminate unnecessary functions of government...we must consolidate subdivisions of government and, like the private citizen, give up luxuries which we can no longer afford."

"I propose to you, my friends, and through you that government of all kinds, big and little be made solvent and that the example be set by the president of the United State and his Cabinet."

So said Franklin Delano Roosevelt in his acceptance speech to the Democratic National Convention in July 1932.

The time is now, my fellow Americans, to recapture our destiny, to take it into our own hands. But, to do this will take many of us, working together. I ask you tonight to volunteer your help in this cause so we can carry our message throughout the land.

Yes, isn't now the time that we, the people, carried out these unkempt promises? Let us pledge to each other and to all America on this July day 48 years later, we intend to do just that.

I have thought of something that is not part of my speech and I'm worried over whether I should do it.

Can we doubt that only a Divine Providence placed this land, this island of freedom, here as a refuge for all those people in the world who yearn to breathe freely: Jews and Christians enduring persecution behind the Iron Curtain, the boat people of Southeast Asia, of Cuba and Haiti, the victims of drought and famine in Africa, the freedom fighters of Afghanistan and our own countrymen held in savage captivity.

I'll confess that I've been a little afraid to suggest what I'm going to suggest -- I'm more afraid not to -- that we begin our crusade joined together in a moment of silent prayer. God bless America.

I haven't written anything in a while....

I think that tonight is a good day to start again.

I'll start with a question that came to me while sipping coffee from 7-Eleven - in a 20oz. Red McCain cup: Why are Republicans red? I mean Democrats have gone so far to the left that they have tacitly admitted they are socialists. Red is a much more descriptive color. Up until fairly recently the Democrat web site color scheme was yellow on red. Sadly I think that it will be with us for a long time; I don't think the Democrats originally wanted to have an ass as a mascot.